What is a "Black Swan"? It 'an isolated event and unexpected, which has a huge impact, and that only in retrospect can be explained and made predictable. Like when the Europeans arrived in Australia, saw the swans blacks after believing for centuries, supported by evidence, that all swans were white. From the theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of American Science of uncertainty, the powerful of the Earth - not wizards or witches - try to anticipate events that humanity will know in the near future. In these days in Davos Summit met on the International Monetary Fund. Federico Rampini (Republic) reported the ranking of the first blacks swans found there. "In the first place among the mega-risks according to the mighty of the earth is the shock of hyperinflation of commodities, especially food. In second place is the explosive mixture" high youth unemployment over the Internet ": the result is a hundred Tunisie horizon, and not just in the Arab world. Only in third place come the sovereign bankruptcies, some dangerous, but already a bit 'discounted in the current scenarios. Surprisingly, the fourth and fifth place are placed instead of two "positive shock" (defined events blacks swans are unpredictable and powerful, but not necessarily catastrophic). These could provide a steering beneficial to our future: the retirement of the baby-boomers as opening a new market among the "gray panthers" el'impennata wages in China with many favorable effects.
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